National Activity Index Unexpectedly Tumbled In October, Chicago Fed Warns

Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) tumbled to -0.49 (below 0 meaning below-trend growth), well below expectations of 0.0 and September’s -0.02 print.

Source: Bloomberg

Only 24 of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in October, while 61 made negative contributions.

The overall trend of CFNAI is clear…

Source: Bloomberg

The slump was broad-based with all four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from September, and all four categories made negative contributions in October.

Production-related indicators contributed –0.33 to the CFNAI in October, down from –0.04 in September.

The contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category to the CFNAI edged down to –0.04 in October from a neutral value in September.

Employment-related indicators contributed –0.10 to the CFNAI in October, down from +0.01 in September.

The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI ticked down to –0.02 in October from a neutral value in September.

As The Chicago Fed concludes, the index suggests economic growth declined in October.

Doesn’t sound very ‘Goldilocks’ to us.