U.S. Rep. Jahana Hayes, D-Conn., left, shakes hands with Republican House candidate George Logan before a debate, Tuesday, Oct. 18, 2022, in Waterbury, Conn. (AP Photo/Jessica Hill) Jessica Hill/AP

Rep. Jahana Hayes and challenger George Logan in tight race for Connecticut House seat: Poll

Reese Gorman November 21, 10:38 AM November 21, 10:38 AM Video Embed

EXCLUSIVE — A new internal poll in the race for Connecticut’s 5th Congressional District shows a tight one between three-term incumbent Rep. Jahana Hayes (D-CT) and George Logan, a Republican who lost by just over 2,000 votes last cycle.

The district is one of the most competitive in the nation, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, which has rated it as “lean Democrat.”

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This is reflected in an internal polling memo for the Logan campaign, obtained by the Washington Examiner, that shows the race is neck and neck and within the margin of error of 4.9 percentage points. Forty-three percent of voters said they support Hayes, 41% said they support Logan, and 16% remain undecided.

The generic ballot is also within the margin of error, with 44% of voters saying they prefer a Democratic candidate and 42% of voters saying they prefer a Republican candidate.

Logan leads among independent and unaffiliated voters, 41% to 33%; among independent men, 39%-28%; and among independent women, 43%-37%.

The poll, conducted Nov. 11-13, finds President Joe Biden is unpopular in the district as well, with only 40% of voters approving of the job he’s done and 53% disapproving of his performance.

This is a rematch of last cycle’s race in the district, in which Hayes defeated Logan by less than 1 percentage point.

“The 2024 campaign seems to be picking up right where it left off in 2022 when George Logan lost by just about 2,000 votes against Jahana Hayes,” the memo reads. “The political environment in this district should help aid Logan once again as President Biden’s approval rating is very negative, and a generic ballot for Congress also shows competitive terrain.”

Both parties’ campaign committees, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee, have this as one of their top races this cycle.

It’s one of 37 targets the NRCC is seeking to flip. At the same time, the DCCC has Hayes as one of its “front-line” members.

“Jahana Hayes has been shaking in her boots since George Logan announced — and she should be. Joe Biden’s failures are dragging down Democrats even in deep blue states, creating new pathways for Republicans to grow our majority,” NRCC Communications Director Jack Pandol said in a statement.

However, Democrats pushed back on the assertion that Hayes is in trouble and said voters will choose her over Logan once again this cycle.

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“George Logan couldn’t define what it means to be a bipartisan leader if his life depended on it. Logan’s record of supporting extreme MAGA Republicans’ agenda to ban abortion nationwide and endanger this district with harmful gun policies is a love letter to the far-right wing of his party,” Ellie Dougherty, a spokeswoman for the DCCC, said in a statement. “Meanwhile, congresswoman Hayes has won Connecticut’s 5th District three times over because of her commonsense leadership. We’ll make sure Connecticut voters see right through Logan’s lies.”

Hayes has $919,557 on hand and raised $411,285 last quarter, according to Federal Election Commission records. Logan didn’t announce his candidacy until early October, so he has not filed an FEC report since becoming a candidate. But he has $6,000 left from his last campaign, in which he raised $1.2 million in total.

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